Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 123.059 | EURUSD 1.10843 | AUDUSD 0.7632 | NZDUSD 0.6718 | USDCAD 1.25434 | USDCHF 0.94375 | GBPUSD 1.56092 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.14 | 122.81
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1099 | 1.1082
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 136.59 | 136.23
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7649 | 0.7566
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6731 | 0.6705
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2565 | 1.2538
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04645 | 1.0456
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.94365 | 0.9425
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5624 | 1.5603
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71045 | 0.7100
For today
- EUR: Another quiet session, with the market heading quietly from the opening 1.1085 area to test weakly at the 1.1100 level on a couple of occasions but with nothing behind the attempts. Light offers into the 1.1100 areas with only slightly better offers into the 1.1120 areas a push through the 1.1130 levels will likely see weak stops and then further offers through to the 1.1150 levels however, from that point on the market is likely to see congestion through to the 1.1230 areas and without strong impetus possibly enough to limit the upside however, if there was a strong push the 1.1300 again opens for possible tests. Downside bids light into the 1.1000 areas before stronger bids start to make an appearance as the market moves to this week’s lows just below 1.0960, a break here is likely to see some stops appear and the market then running into further bids into 1.0900 and through to the 1.0850 areas and then a possible breakout to through those lows.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.5610 levels saw an initial attempt higher pushing through the 1.5620 level briefly before settling back to the opening levels and trading quietly from then on. Light offers into the 1.5650 areas now likely and continuing into the 1.5680 levels a test of the 1.5700 levels is likely to see stronger offers and a push through the 1.5740-60 area will open up to stops and a chance to test the resolve above 1.5780. Downside bids sees bids into the 1.5550 areas and this is likely to be repeated every 50 pips withy better bids around the 1.5500 areas and so on until a break through 1.5400 and the market opening to lower levels from last month.
- JPY: USDJPY saw a quiet opening and the market dipping into the Tokyo session from the opening around the 123.10 levels before quickly dropping to the 122.80 areas as the weak longs took back positions into the Independence Day bank holiday in the US. Having hit its lows the market spent the rest of the session heading back to the opening levels in quiet trading. Topside offers light into the 123.20 areas before the market opens up again with very little until the 123.80 areas where stronger offers start to appear. Downside bids into the 122.80 levels with more congestive bids around the 122.50 levels and then stronger bids into 122.00 before the chances of stronger stops are likely to appear.
- AUD: The market edged higher in early trading moving from the 0.7630 levels to push to the 0.7640-50 levels before the release of the Retail sales numbers, the numbers disappointed and the market quickly broke lower pushing to the 0.7600 levels before slowing a little and then continuing over the next couple of hours to push to just below the 0.7570 before running into sufficient bids to take the market back to 0.7590 levels. Topside offers into the 0.7650 levels with the likely weak stops through the 0.7660 areas and an opening to the 0.7700-10 areas, downside bids continue through the day’s lows and increase as the market moves towards the 75 cent level with buyers likely into the years lows and then option plays around the 75 cent level likely to hold the market before strong stops appear through the level.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
EUR:
Greek Referendum Result Too Close to Call, Poll Shows
JPY:
Japan’s Aso says to keep close watch on market moves over Greece RTRS
Japan’s Amari: Important for FX Rates to Reflect Fundamentals
AUD:
Australia June Services Index Rises 1.6 Pts M/m to 51.2
CNY:
PBOC Adviser Says China Govt. Should Believe in Market: Caixin
HSBC China June Composite PMI 50.6 vs 51.2 in May
HSBC China June Services PMI 51.8 vs 53.5 in May
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M May A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.00% | R -0.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â HSBC China Services PMI Jun A 51.8 | C 53.8 | P 53.5
07:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Jun C 52.9 | P 52.5
07:50Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Jun (F) C 54.1 | P 54.1
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Jun (F) C 54.2 | P 54.2
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Jun (F) C 54.4 | P 54.4
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Jun C 57.5 | P 56.5
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M May C 0.10% | P 0.70%
Harry Hindsight                  Â
- EUR: The main focus for the day was the non-farm payrolls and although there was some movement it was really a none event, moving initially lower from the opening around the 1.1050 levels the market headed higher into mid-session to push to the 1.1070-80 areas for the move into the London session with the London players quickly attempting the topside and failing and the market falling back to the 1.1050 levels but unable to test the lows of 1.1030 again. The market again pushed to the topside without really pushing the 1.1080 to strongly the release of the NFP numbers saw the market again stabbed lower before testing higher to the 1.1120 levels and then falling back to below the 1.1100 levels in a reasonably savage move and then starting a steady rise through 1.1100 before the London close, the market then drifted without the full force of the market the market through to the end of the day was very lacklustre and drifted to the 1.1080 levels. With the numbers in line with expectations the market read this as relieving pressure for an early rise in interest rates and while some still look for changes this year I would suspect the Q1 2016 a more likely jump point.
- GBP: Cable was very quiet with the complete range little more than 70 pips and that on the NFP release, moving from the 1.5615 areas the market drifted early in the session to the 1.5600 level and this held through the Asian session, the run into the London session saw good selling from the opening and triggering light stops on the break through the 1.5600 and the market dipped for the first time into the 1.5580 levels before recovering, the move to the NFP saw reasonable downside pressure pushing down to the 1.5560’s and then the release taking the market quickly higher to push to the 1.5640 levels before again settling into the 1.5610 areas to trade quietly to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY continued its previous session of a rising market, opening around the 123.15 levels and steadily rising towards the 123.50 levels into the early Tokyo session before a slight set back, the market renewed its steady push and London helped it to the 123.60 levels and the lead to the NFP saw the market pushing above the 123.70 levels before the market settled quickly lower from the release to touch through 123.00, from this point the market died a death and drifted to the close holding around the 123.10 levels in very quiet trading.
- AUD: Asia was very quiet for the Oz with the market moving around the 0.7640 level for the most part and moving into the London session back to the opening 0.7650 areas, London were quick sellers and the market quickly gave ground in a limited fashion to the 0.7610 levels and then drifted to the release of NFP touching 0.7590 levels again, the release saw the market quickly bounce to the opening levels and the market then quietly running out just short of the opening levels.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Jun A 34.20% | C 36.20% | P 35.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) May A -2.75B | C -2.21B | P -3.89B | R -4.14B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nationwide House Prices M/M Jun A -0.20% | C 0.60% | P 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Jun A 58.1 | C 56.6 | P 55.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M May A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P -0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y May A -2.00% | C -2.10% | P -2.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Jun A 223K | C 225K | P 280K | R 254K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun A 5.30% | C 5.40% | P 5.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Jun A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.30% | R 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 27) A 281K | C 270K | P 271K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders May A -1.00% | C -0.30% | P -0.40% | R-0.70%
Good Luck,
Andy
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