Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 122.599 | EURUSD 1.06102 | AUDUSD 0.72261 | NZDUSD 0.65732 | USDCAD 1.32935 | USDCHF 1.0238 | GBPUSD 1.51007 |

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               122.73 | 122.53

EUR/USD             1.0616 | 1.0601

EUR/JPY               130.15 | 129.985

AUD/USD            0.7234 | 0.7214

NZD/USD             0.6579 | 0.6556

USD/CAD             1.3309 | 1.3292

EUR/CHF              1.0869 | 1.08515

USD/CHF             1.0240 | 1.02345

GBP/USD             1.5105 | 1.5087

EUR/GBP             0.7033 | 0.70185

For Today

• EUR: The early market drifted from the opening around the 1.0605 areas however, it was unable to push through 1.0600 areas before moving into the Tokyo session and USD selling moved into the market after the Tokyo fix was over, Euro’s managed to then push above the 1.0610 areas with a couple of weak attempts towards the 1.0620 levels and the move into the grey hours. Topside offers light through the 1.0640-60 levels and the market becoming stronger into the 1.0680-1.0700 levels, weak stops possibly through the 1.0710 areas will likely allow a test of the 1.0750 areas however, with the US likely to be on skeleton staff the market is possibly not going to move to far. Downside bids into the 1.0600 levels and those bids likely to continue through the 1.0580 levels before weakness is likely to appear with likely stronger bids into the 1.0520 level and slight through however, a push through the 1.0460 levels will open the downside for a strong breakout and increased chatter of a parity number.
• GBP: Cable briefly tested higher during the early part of the Tokyo session moving above the 1.5105 levels before dropping back and steadily trading to the 1.5090 levels in quiet trading with the cross EURGBP trading slowly to move above 0.7030 during the course of the session. Topside offers light through the 1.5130 levels and slightly stronger offers through to the 1.5150 areas, a move through the area will then opening a test to the 1.5200 areas again with possibly stronger offers into the area, those offers are likely to continue through to the 1.5250 levels. Downside bids into the 1.5050 areas are likely to be strong and although there may be slight weak stops the market is likely to continue being stubborn to the 1.5000 areas before the market has any chance of moving lower.
• JPY: The market remained caught in a tight range moving from the opening 122.60 areas and drifting into Tokyo before making slight headway into the 122.70’s during the fix, the market then reversed once the limited action was over and traded steadily lower through the session to test into the 122.50’s on a quiet session. Topside offers light through the 122.80 areas but building into the 123.00 area and beyond with the offers likely to continue and increase on any move towards the 123.50 area. Light bids into the 122.50 areas opens up fresh tests to the 122.20 level and stronger bids through to the 121.80 areas, weak stops likely through the 121.70 levels and the market open to fresh movement into the 121.00 levels.
• AUD: The Oz remained in a tight range moving through the session with early dips to the 0.7215 before Tokyo opened before the session saw the highs towards 0.7235 made and general trading around the 0.7225 level. Offers into the 0.7240-60 areas before a little weakness and the run towards the 73 cent levels and stronger offers towards that level. Downside bids into the 71 cent levels will likely continue to the 0.7080 levels with stronger bids appearing on a move below 0.7060 and then increasing in size on a move towards the 70 cent levels.

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         Jobless Rate Oct A 3.10% | C 3.40% | P 3.40%

JPY         Household Spending Y/Y Oct A -2.40% | C 0.00% | P -0.40%

JPY         National CPI Core Y/Y Oct A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%

JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Nov A 0.00% | C -0.10% | P -0.20%

GBP       GfK Consumer Sentiment Nov A 1 | C 2 | P 2

09:30     GBP       GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) C 0.50% | P 0.50%

09:30     GBP       Index of Services 3M/3M Sep C 0.80% | P 0.90%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Economic Confidence Nov C 105.9 | P 105.9

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Nov C 0.45 | P 0.44

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Industrial Confidence Nov C -2.1 | P -2

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Services Confidence Nov C 12 | P 11.9

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Nov (F) C -7.9 | P -6

13:30     CAD       Industrial Product Price M/M Oct P -0.30%

13:30    CAD       Raw Materials Price Index M/M Oct P 3.00%

Harry Hindsight              

• EUR: As you would expect for a US thanksgiving the market was dull at the best of times with the Euro opening in the Asian session around the 1.0625 areas and trading around the 1.0620 level through the session with the market remaining in a 10 point range, the move into the grey hours saw the market dip lower into the London session to test the 1.0600 areas however, the move was limited in strength and the bids remained intact and gradually moved back towards the opening levels through London, the close in London saw the market once again move to the 1.0605 areas and held through to the close.
• GBP: Cable had a limited session however, it was a little more exciting than the Euro and opened around the 1.5125 areas and held around that level through to the London session with a range a little better than the Euro but still limited, moving into the grey hours the market started to drop back with the market seeing limited EURGBP buying moving in the market as the cross moved up 20 pips however, the move resulted in the Cable leg slipping lower and the market moved steadily down to the 1.5070 areas before finding support and the move through the session was about regaining much of the losses, the close in London saw the move higher finished with and a slow drift lower to trade back below 1.5100 and then hold in the areas to the close.
• JPY: Without the US market USDJPY was extremely quietly trading around the 122.60 levels throughout the day, drifting from the opening 122.70 areas the market moved into the 122.50’s before recovering a little, the move into London saw the lows set however, the 122.50 level held and the market then spent the rest of the session trading around 122.60.
• AUD: Weak Capex numbers which should not have really surprised the market were obviously released on what you would call a slow news day, having opened around the 0.7255 areas the market had moved slowly to above the 0.7260 areas and then the poor numbers sent the market trading to the 0.7220 levels in a quick move, while the market recovered half the losses during Asia the markets move into London saw the downside tested into London and the lows around 0.7210 made, the session saw the market recover to the 0.7240 levels before the close of the London session before drifting off to the close around 0.7220.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Trade Balance (NZD) Oct A -963M | C -1000M | P -1222M | R -1140M

EUR        Eurozone M3 Y/Y Oct A 5.30% | C 4.90% | P 4.90%

 

Good Luck,

Andy

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